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FC Seoul vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 10:30

FC Seoul

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-110.5%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.0%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.0%3-13.3%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 54.6% 1.83 -16.4%

Draw 26.5% 30.3% 3.30 -7.5%

Away win 27.8% 22.2% 4.50 +15.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 44.4% 2.25 +5.3%

Over 3.5 28.5% 23.8% 4.20 +11.8%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 37.0% 47.6% 2.10 -22.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 25.0% 4.00 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 15.8%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Seoul1.2

Pohang Steelers0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SEOUL · PPG 1.75

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.70

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Seoul (H) 45.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -16.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.5%

Pohang Steelers (A) 27.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Seoul face Pohang Steelers in South Korea - K League 1 on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Seoul a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Pohang Steelers 28%, so FC Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FC Seoul and 0.8 for Pohang Steelers (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Seoul are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.70 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 3-1.

FC Seoul vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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