Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 10:30

Gwangju FC

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

// Model verdict

Away 56% chance

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-113.4%0-212.9%0-38.3%0-4+6.3%1 1-05.1%1-19.9%1-29.5%1-36.1%1-4+4.6%2 2-01.9%2-13.6%2-23.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.5%3-10.9%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.8% 23.8% 4.20 -15.1%

Draw 23.4% 29.0% 3.45 -11.6%

Away win 58.8% 54.1% 1.85 +8.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Over 3.5 31.1% 28.6% 3.50 +8.8%

BTTS 48.7% 55.6% 1.80 -12.3%

Home O1.5 33.3% 28.6% 3.50 +16.6%

Away O1.5 49.0% 51.3% 1.95 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob48.7%

A 59% / xG 0.7-1.9 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.9%

#2 0–1 13.4%

#3 1–1✓ 9.9%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwangju FC0.7

Gimcheon Sangmu FC1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GWANGJU FC · PPG 0.67

GIMCHEON SANGMU FC · PPG 1.11

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

56%

DANGER

xG gap -1.20 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gwangju FC (H) 17.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -15.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.6%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A) 58.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwangju FC face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwangju FC a 18% chance, the draw 23% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 59%, so Gimcheon Sangmu FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Gwangju FC and 1.9 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwangju FC are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.11 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 1 Predictions