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Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 10:30

Gwangju FC

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-113.7%0-213.0%0-38.2%0-4+5.9%1 1-05.3%1-110.1%1-29.5%1-36.0%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.0%2-13.7%2-23.5%2-32.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.5%3-10.9%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.9% 22.7% 4.40 -12.7%

Draw 23.9% 28.6% 3.50 -9.8%

Away win 58.2% 55.6% 1.80 +4.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 29.5% 28.6% 3.50 +1.9%

BTTS 48.4% 54.6% 1.83 -11.4%

Home O1.5 33.3% 28.2% 3.55 +18.2%

Away O1.5 48.9% 51.8% 1.93 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 60%

ROI -25.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob48.4%

A 58% / xG 0.7-1.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.0%

#2 0–1 13.7%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwangju FC0.7

Gimcheon Sangmu FC1.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GWANGJU FC · PPG 0.67

GIMCHEON SANGMU FC · PPG 1.11

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Gwangju FC (H) 17.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -12.7%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.8%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A) 58.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwangju FC face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwangju FC a 18% chance, the draw 24% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 58%, so Gimcheon Sangmu FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Gwangju FC and 1.9 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwangju FC are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.11 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +18.2%.

Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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