Today / Australia - NPL South Australia / MetroStars vs West Adelaide

MetroStars vs West Adelaide Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 09:45

MetroStars

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

West Adelaide

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-11.8%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.5%1-15.4%1-22.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.3%2-18.2%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-18.2%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-013.5%4+-113.2%4+-26.5%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 80.0% 1.25 -15.0%

Draw 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

Away win 14.6% 11.8% 8.50 +14.5%

Over 2.5 67.0% 73.5% 1.36 -8.9%

Over 3.5 44.5% 54.6% 1.83 -18.6%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 77.3% 80.0% 1.25 -3.4%

Away O1.5 29.2% 25.0% 4.00 +10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 17%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -79.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 68% / xG 3.0-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.4%

#2 2–0 8.3%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MetroStars3.0

West Adelaide1.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

METROSTARS · PPG 2.12

WEST ADELAIDE · PPG 0.89

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.05 for Home, form 2.12 vs 0.89 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

MetroStars (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -15.0%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -7.8%

West Adelaide (A) 14.6%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

MetroStars face West Adelaide in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MetroStars a 68% chance, the draw 17% and West Adelaide 15%, so MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for MetroStars and 1.0 for West Adelaide (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MetroStars are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.89 for West Adelaide. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +47.1%.

MetroStars vs West Adelaide Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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