Today / Australia - NPL South Australia / Playford P. vs NE MetroStars

Playford P. vs NE MetroStars Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 05:30

Playford P. logo
Playford P.
PPG 1.89 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
NE MetroStars logo
NE MetroStars
PPG 2.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.2%0-25.2%0-33.5%0-4+2.7%1 1-04.3%1-18.6%1-28.6%1-35.7%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.5%2-17.1%2-27.1%2-34.7%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.9%3-13.9%3-23.9%3-32.6%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.3%4+-22.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 32.5% 25.6% 3.90 +26.8%
Draw 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%
Away win 45.2% 61.0% 1.64 -25.9%
Over 2.5 67.1% 69.4% 1.44 -3.4%
Over 3.5 44.5% 50.0% 2.00 -11.0%
BTTS 63.8% 69.4% 1.44 -8.1%
Home O1.5 53.0% 38.2% 2.62 +38.9%
Away O1.5 50.2% 66.7% 1.50 -24.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.8%

A 45% / xG 1.7-2.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%
#2 1–2 8.6%
#3 2–2 7.1%
#4 2–1 7.1%
#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Playford P.1.7
NE MetroStars2.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAYFORD P. · PPG 1.89

NE METROSTARS · PPG 2.22

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team
65%
DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.89) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.22)

Win probability 1X2

Playford P. (H) 32.5%
ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +26.8%
Draw 22.3%
ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%
NE MetroStars (A) 45.2%
ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Playford P. face NE MetroStars in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Playford P. a 33% chance, the draw 22% and NE MetroStars 45%, so NE MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Playford P. and 2.0 for NE MetroStars (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Playford P. are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 2.22 for NE MetroStars. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +38.9%.

PredictVantage

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