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West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 05:30

West Adelaide

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sturt Lions

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.3%0-22.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.5%1-17.4%1-26.1%1-33.4%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.9%3-16.4%3-25.3%3-32.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-16.2%4+-25.1%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 42.6% 2.35 +15.6%

Draw 21.9% 27.0% 3.70 -11.4%

Away win 28.9% 42.6% 2.35 -19.3%

Over 2.5 67.1% 69.4% 1.44 -3.4%

Over 3.5 46.6% 50.0% 2.00 -6.8%

BTTS 64.8% 69.4% 1.44 -6.7%

Home O1.5 62.9% 54.6% 1.83 +15.1%

Away O1.5 50.2% 54.6% 1.83 -8.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.8%

H 49% / xG 2.3-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Adelaide2.3

Sturt Lions1.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST ADELAIDE · PPG 1.25

STURT LIONS · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

West Adelaide (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +15.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.4%

Sturt Lions (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Adelaide face Sturt Lions in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Adelaide a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Sturt Lions 29%, so West Adelaide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for West Adelaide and 1.6 for Sturt Lions (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Adelaide are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.75 for Sturt Lions. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +45.7%.

West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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