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Adelaide Comets vs FK Beograd Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide Comets

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

FK Beograd

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.9%0-29.1%0-34.6%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.0%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.1%2-16.3%2-24.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.4%3-12.1%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% 30.3% 3.30 -4.0%

Draw 25.4% 26.3% 3.80 -2.1%

Away win 46.3% 54.6% 1.83 -15.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 42.0% 2.38 -21.9%

BTTS 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Home O1.5 35.0% 40.0% 2.50 -12.5%

Away O1.5 49.0% 59.9% 1.67 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 17%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -79.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.4%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Comets1.0

FK Beograd1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 1.00

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Comets (H) 28.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.0%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.1%

FK Beograd (A) 46.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Comets face FK Beograd in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Comets a 28% chance, the draw 25% and FK Beograd 46%, so FK Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Adelaide Comets and 1.5 for FK Beograd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Comets are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.56 for FK Beograd. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.2%.

Adelaide Comets vs FK Beograd Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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