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FK Beograd vs Adelaide Utd B Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 08:30

FK Beograd

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Adelaide Utd B

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.4%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-19.4%1-24.6%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-17.0%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-16.1%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 46.5% 2.15 +23.6%

Draw 22.4% 26.7% 3.75 -9.6%

Away win 20.2% 38.5% 2.60 -28.5%

Over 2.5 57.8% 69.4% 1.44 -16.8%

Over 3.5 37.4% 50.0% 2.00 -25.2%

BTTS 52.6% 71.4% 1.40 -26.4%

Home O1.5 62.9% 57.8% 1.73 +8.8%

Away O1.5 31.0% 52.4% 1.91 -40.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 17%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -79.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Beograd2.1

Adelaide Utd B1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 2.00

ADELAIDE UTD B · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

FK Beograd (H) 57.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +23.6%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.6%

Adelaide Utd B (A) 20.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Beograd face Adelaide Utd B in Australia - NPL South Australia on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Beograd a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Adelaide Utd B 20%, so FK Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FK Beograd and 1.0 for Adelaide Utd B (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Beograd are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.38 for Adelaide Utd B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 0-2.

FK Beograd vs Adelaide Utd B Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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