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Adelaide City vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 05:00

Adelaide City logo
Adelaide City
PPG 2.50 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Croydon Kings logo
Croydon Kings
PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.3%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.3%1-19.3%1-25.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.3%3-17.0%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-16.1%4+-23.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 52.2%
Draw 21.4%
Away win 26.4%
Over 2.5 65.4%
Over 3.5 43.1%
BTTS 62.4%
Home O1.5 62.9%
Away O1.5 36.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.4%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%
#2 2–1 9.9%
#3 2–0 8.9%
#4 3–1 7.0%
#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide City2.1
Croydon Kings1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 2.50

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide City (H) 52.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 21.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Croydon Kings (A) 26.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide City face Croydon Kings in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide City a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Croydon Kings 26%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Adelaide City and 1.1 for Croydon Kings (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide City are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.75 for Croydon Kings.

PredictVantage

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