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Adelaide United II vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide United II

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sturt Lions

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.0%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.4%1-112.2%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 51.3% 1.95 -3.5%

Draw 26.7% 30.3% 3.30 -7.1%

Away win 23.8% 30.8% 3.25 -13.6%

Over 2.5 50.0% 69.4% 1.44 -28.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 47.6% 2.10 -23.8%

BTTS 52.3% 71.4% 1.40 -26.8%

Home O1.5 46.3% 61.7% 1.62 -25.0%

Away O1.5 36.4% 44.4% 2.25 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 17%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -79.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 0–0 7.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide United II1.5

Sturt Lions1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE UNITED II · PPG 1.22

STURT LIONS · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide United II (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -3.5%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.1%

Sturt Lions (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide United II face Sturt Lions in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide United II a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Sturt Lions 24%, so Adelaide United II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Adelaide United II and 1.1 for Sturt Lions (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide United II are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.78 for Sturt Lions.

Adelaide United II vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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