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Para Hills Knights vs Playford City Patriots Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 05:30

Para Hills Knights

PPG 0.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Playford City Patriots

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -2.97 for Away, form 0.22 vs 1.12

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-13.7%0-27.0%0-38.9%0-4+22.9%1 1-00.8%1-13.1%1-25.8%1-37.4%1-4+19.1%2 2-00.3%2-11.3%2-22.4%2-33.1%2-4+8.0%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.7%3-30.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% — — —

Draw 17.4% — — —

Away win 69.3% — — —

Over 2.5 75.2% — — —

Over 3.5 53.4% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 83.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 17%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -79.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)3.8 BTTS prob55.4%

A 69% / xG 0.8-3.8 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.9%

#2 0–4 8.4%

#3 1–3 7.4%

#4 1–4 7.0%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Para Hills Knights0.8

Playford City Patriots3.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.2% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PARA HILLS KNIGHTS · PPG 0.22

PLAYFORD CITY PATRIOTS · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.97 for Away, form 0.22 vs 1.12

Win probability 1X2

Para Hills Knights (H) 13.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Playford City Patriots (A) 69.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Para Hills Knights face Playford City Patriots in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Para Hills Knights a 13% chance, the draw 17% and Playford City Patriots 69%, so Playford City Patriots are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Para Hills Knights and 3.8 for Playford City Patriots (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Para Hills Knights are averaging 0.22 points per game versus 1.12 for Playford City Patriots.

Para Hills Knights vs Playford City Patriots Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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