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Cooma Tigers FC vs Tuggeranong United Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 08:00

Cooma Tigers FC

PPG 2.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tuggeranong United

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.5%0-21.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-02.9%1-14.7%1-23.7%1-32.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.5%2-17.1%2-25.7%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.6%3-17.3%3-25.8%3-33.0%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-111.9%4+-29.4%4+-35.0%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.0% 62.5% 1.60 -4.0%

Draw 17.6% 21.1% 4.75 -9.8%

Away win 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Over 2.5 73.5% 73.5% 1.36 -0.0%

Over 3.5 53.2% 53.8% 1.86 -1.1%

BTTS 69.5% 71.9% 1.39 -3.4%

Home O1.5 77.3% 73.5% 1.36 +5.1%

Away O1.5 49.0% 41.7% 2.40 +17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.5%

H 60% / xG 3.1-1.6 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 7.1%

#3 3–2 5.8%

#4 2–2 5.7%

#5 4–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cooma Tigers FC3.1

Tuggeranong United1.6

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.5% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

COOMA TIGERS FC · PPG 2.22

TUGGERANONG UNITED · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cooma Tigers FC (H) 60.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -4.0%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -9.8%

Tuggeranong United (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cooma Tigers FC face Tuggeranong United in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cooma Tigers FC a 60% chance, the draw 18% and Tuggeranong United 23%, so Cooma Tigers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Cooma Tigers FC and 1.6 for Tuggeranong United (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cooma Tigers FC are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 2.00 for Tuggeranong United. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +17.6%.

Cooma Tigers FC vs Tuggeranong United Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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