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Belconnen United vs O'Connor Knights Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 06:30

Belconnen United

PPG 0.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

O'Connor Knights

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.9%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.3%1-111.4%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 46.5% 2.15 -0.0%

Draw 25.3% 25.0% 4.00 +0.7%

Away win 28.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 71.4% 1.40 -24.5%

Over 3.5 32.8% 52.4% 1.91 -37.4%

BTTS 55.4% 75.8% 1.32 -26.9%

Home O1.5 53.5% 60.2% 1.66 -11.2%

Away O1.5 36.9% 55.9% 1.79 -34.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belconnen United1.7

O'Connor Knights1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BELCONNEN UNITED · PPG 0.43

O'CONNOR KNIGHTS · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Belconnen United (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -0.0%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +0.7%

O'Connor Knights (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belconnen United face O'Connor Knights in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belconnen United a 47% chance, the draw 25% and O'Connor Knights 28%, so Belconnen United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Belconnen United and 1.2 for O'Connor Knights (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belconnen United are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 0.50 for O'Connor Knights.

Belconnen United vs O'Connor Knights Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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