Today / Australia - NPL Capital Territory / C. Croatia vs C. Olympic

C. Croatia vs C. Olympic Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Sunday, July 5, 2026

C. Croatia

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

C. Olympic

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.2%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.6%1-11.1%1-20.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.3%2 2-01.5%2-12.6%2-22.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.5%3-14.3%3-23.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-012.9%4+-122.3%4+-219.4%4+-311.2%4+-4+7.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.3% — — —

Draw 17.3% — — —

Away win 14.4% — — —

Over 2.5 81.7% — — —

Over 3.5 67.7% — — —

BTTS 69.1% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 49.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)5.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.1%

H 68% / xG 5.0-1.7 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 5.4%

#2 5–1 5.4%

#3 4–2 4.7%

#4 5–2 4.7%

#5 3–1 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

C. Croatia5.0

C. Olympic1.7

COMBINED 6.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.7% · O3.5 PROB 67.7%

Form & verdict PPG

C. CROATIA · PPG 2.40

C. OLYMPIC · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away AVERAGE (1.13) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

C. Croatia (H) 68.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

C. Olympic (A) 14.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

C. Croatia face C. Olympic in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives C. Croatia a 68% chance, the draw 17% and C. Olympic 14%, so C. Croatia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.0 for C. Croatia and 1.7 for C. Olympic (6.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, C. Croatia are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.13 for C. Olympic.