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Port FC vs Pathum Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Port FC

PPG 2.54 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Pathum Utd

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+14.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.9%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.4%1-18.5%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-17.0%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-16.5%4+-22.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.9% 61.7% 1.62 +14.9%

Draw 18.0% 27.8% 3.60 -35.2%

Away win 11.1% 20.0% 5.00 -44.5%

Over 2.5 56.9% 59.9% 1.67 -5.0%

Over 3.5 34.5% 38.5% 2.60 -10.3%

BTTS 47.0% 61.7% 1.62 -23.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.0%

H 71% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 9.4%

#5 1–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Port FC2.2

Pathum Utd0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PORT FC · PPG 2.54

PATHUM UTD · PPG 1.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.54), Away GOOD (1.54) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Port FC (H) 70.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +14.9%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -35.2%

Pathum Utd (A) 11.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -44.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Port FC face Pathum Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port FC a 71% chance, the draw 18% and Pathum Utd 11%, so Port FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Port FC and 0.7 for Pathum Utd (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port FC are averaging 2.54 points per game versus 1.54 for Pathum Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Port FC vs Pathum Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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