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Valentine vs Charlestown City Blues Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 06:30

Valentine

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Charlestown City Blues

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.5%0-24.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.2%1-19.8%1-27.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.3%3-15.2%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.4%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 47.6% 2.10 +4.4%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 28.0% 38.5% 2.60 -16.3%

Over 2.5 65.8% 65.4% 1.53 +0.7%

Over 3.5 42.1% 43.7% 2.29 -3.6%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 53.5% 54.9% 1.82 -2.6%

Away O1.5 49.0% 48.3% 2.07 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 0%

ROI 19.3%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valentine1.8

Charlestown City Blues1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENTINE · PPG 1.00

CHARLESTOWN CITY BLUES · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Valentine (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +4.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Charlestown City Blues (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valentine face Charlestown City Blues in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valentine a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Charlestown City Blues 28%, so Valentine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Valentine and 1.6 for Charlestown City Blues (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valentine are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.78 for Charlestown City Blues. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +1.4%.

Valentine vs Charlestown City Blues Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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