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Lambton Jaffas vs Maitland Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 04:30

Lambton Jaffas

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maitland

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.6%0-24.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.7%1 1-04.7%1-18.6%1-27.7%1-34.7%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.7%3-15.0%3-24.5%3-32.7%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.5%4+-23.2%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 50.0% 2.00 -19.8%

Draw 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Away win 38.0% 34.5% 2.90 +10.2%

Over 2.5 66.7% 73.5% 1.36 -9.3%

Over 3.5 44.0% 54.1% 1.85 -18.6%

BTTS 63.8% 75.2% 1.33 -15.2%

Home O1.5 56.8% 65.4% 1.53 -13.1%

Away O1.5 50.2% 53.5% 1.87 -6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.8%

H 40% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lambton Jaffas1.9

Maitland1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LAMBTON JAFFAS · PPG 1.00

MAITLAND · PPG 1.88

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.88) strong but model favors Home (P=40.1%)

Win probability 1X2

Lambton Jaffas (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -19.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Maitland (A) 38.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lambton Jaffas face Maitland in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lambton Jaffas a 40% chance, the draw 22% and Maitland 38%, so Lambton Jaffas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lambton Jaffas and 1.8 for Maitland (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lambton Jaffas are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.88 for Maitland. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.2%.

Lambton Jaffas vs Maitland Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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