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Charlestown A. vs Edgeworth E. Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 05:00

Charlestown A.

PPG 0.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Edgeworth E.

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.8%0-25.8%0-34.7%0-4+5.1%1 1-03.0%1-17.2%1-28.7%1-37.1%1-4+7.6%2 2-02.2%2-15.4%2-26.5%2-35.3%2-4+5.7%3 3-01.1%3-12.7%3-23.2%3-32.6%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.4%4+-21.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.5% 23.8% 4.20 -3.3%

Draw 20.8% 26.3% 3.80 -12.6%

Away win 56.7% 61.7% 1.62 -8.2%

Over 2.5 67.1% 71.4% 1.40 -6.1%

Over 3.5 48.9% 51.5% 1.94 -5.1%

BTTS 63.8% 71.4% 1.40 -10.7%

Home O1.5 46.0% 41.7% 2.40 +10.4%

Away O1.5 67.9% 70.4% 1.42 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 0%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.8%

A 57% / xG 1.5-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.7%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 1–3 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlestown A.1.5

Edgeworth E.2.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTOWN A. · PPG 0.78

EDGEWORTH E. · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.78), Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Charlestown A. (H) 22.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.3%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.6%

Edgeworth E. (A) 56.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlestown A. face Edgeworth E. in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlestown A. a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Edgeworth E. 57%, so Edgeworth E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Charlestown A. and 2.4 for Edgeworth E. (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlestown A. are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 0.89 for Edgeworth E.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +10.4%.

Charlestown A. vs Edgeworth E. Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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