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Adamstown R. vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 04:00

Adamstown R.

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Valentine

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.0%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.1%1-112.1%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.1%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.9%3-14.6%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 52.4% 1.91 -11.6%

Draw 25.2% 27.0% 3.70 -4.1%

Away win 28.5% 32.3% 3.10 -7.0%

Over 2.5 56.5% 66.7% 1.50 -15.3%

Over 3.5 36.0% 46.5% 2.15 -22.6%

BTTS 58.8% 69.4% 1.44 -15.3%

Home O1.5 46.0% 59.5% 1.68 -22.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 47.6% 2.10 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.8%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adamstown R.1.5

Valentine1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ADAMSTOWN R. · PPG 0.89

VALENTINE · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.89), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Adamstown R. (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -11.6%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.1%

Valentine (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adamstown R. face Valentine in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adamstown R. a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Valentine 28%, so Adamstown R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Adamstown R. and 1.2 for Valentine (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adamstown R. are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.11 for Valentine.

Adamstown R. vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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