Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Newcastle O. vs Belmont Swansea

Newcastle O. vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Newcastle O.

PPG 0.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.6%0-24.7%0-33.2%0-4+2.6%1 1-04.0%1-18.1%1-28.2%1-35.6%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.5%2-17.1%2-27.2%2-34.9%2-4+4.0%3 3-02.0%3-14.1%3-24.2%3-32.9%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.7%4+-22.7%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 40.6% — — —

Over 2.5 67.1% — — —

Over 3.5 44.5% — — —

BTTS 63.8% — — —

Home O1.5 53.0% — — —

Away O1.5 50.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 0%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.8%

A 41% / xG 1.8-2.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle O.1.8

Belmont Swansea2.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE O. · PPG 0.78

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle O. (H) 37.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Belmont Swansea (A) 40.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle O. face Belmont Swansea in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle O. a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Belmont Swansea 41%, so Belmont Swansea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Newcastle O. and 2.0 for Belmont Swansea (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle O. are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.88 for Belmont Swansea.

Newcastle O. vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Northern NSW Predictions