Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Weston Bears vs Adamstown Rosebuds

Weston Bears vs Adamstown Rosebuds Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 04:00

Weston Bears

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adamstown Rosebuds

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.1%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.5%1-17.5%1-25.2%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.6%2-19.1%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.3%3-17.3%3-25.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-17.7%4+-25.3%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% — — —

Draw 21.6% — — —

Away win 23.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 46.0% — — —

BTTS 64.5% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 41.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 0%

ROI 19.3%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.5%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weston Bears2.4

Adamstown Rosebuds1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 46.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTON BEARS · PPG 1.40

ADAMSTOWN ROSEBUDS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Weston Bears (H) 55.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Adamstown Rosebuds (A) 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston Bears face Adamstown Rosebuds in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston Bears a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Adamstown Rosebuds 23%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Weston Bears and 1.4 for Adamstown Rosebuds (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston Bears are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Adamstown Rosebuds.

Weston Bears vs Adamstown Rosebuds Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Northern NSW Predictions