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Maitland vs Broadmeadow Magic Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 06:30

Maitland

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Broadmeadow Magic

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.4%0-26.7%0-34.8%0-4+4.1%1 1-04.2%1-18.9%1-29.4%1-36.6%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.1%2-26.5%2-34.6%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.3%3-12.8%3-23.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 38.2% 2.62 -17.7%

Draw 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

Away win 46.1% 48.8% 2.05 -5.5%

Over 2.5 63.7% 71.4% 1.40 -10.8%

Over 3.5 41.3% 50.5% 1.98 -18.2%

BTTS 62.7% 74.6% 1.34 -16.0%

Home O1.5 41.1% 53.2% 1.88 -22.7%

Away O1.5 54.5% 60.2% 1.66 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 0%

ROI 19.3%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob62.7%

A 46% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 6.7%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maitland1.4

Broadmeadow Magic2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MAITLAND · PPG 1.67

BROADMEADOW MAGIC · PPG 2.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.73 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Maitland (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.7%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.0%

Broadmeadow Magic (A) 46.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maitland face Broadmeadow Magic in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maitland a 31% chance, the draw 23% and Broadmeadow Magic 46%, so Broadmeadow Magic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Maitland and 2.1 for Broadmeadow Magic (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maitland are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.11 for Broadmeadow Magic.

Maitland vs Broadmeadow Magic Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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