Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Hamilton Olympic vs Belmont Swansea

Hamilton Olympic vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 09:00

Hamilton Olympic

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.4%0-23.1%0-32.6%0-4+3.1%1 1-02.0%1-15.1%1-26.5%1-35.5%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.1%2-15.4%2-26.8%2-35.8%2-4+6.8%3 3-01.5%3-13.8%3-24.8%3-34.1%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-13.3%4+-24.2%4+-33.5%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 37.0% 2.70 +1.5%

Draw 21.0% 28.6% 3.50 -15.9%

Away win 41.5% 46.5% 2.15 -10.8%

Over 2.5 74.2% 71.4% 1.40 +3.9%

Over 3.5 53.4% 52.1% 1.92 +2.5%

BTTS 69.5% 73.5% 1.36 -5.5%

Home O1.5 61.8% 54.3% 1.84 +13.7%

Away O1.5 67.0% 60.2% 1.66 +11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob69.5%

A 42% / xG 2.1-2.6 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.8%

#2 1–2 6.5%

#3 1–1 5.1%

#4 2–3 5.8%

#5 1–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamilton Olympic2.1

Belmont Swansea2.6

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.2% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMILTON OLYMPIC · PPG 0.78

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

72%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hamilton Olympic (H) 37.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +1.5%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.9%

Belmont Swansea (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamilton Olympic face Belmont Swansea in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamilton Olympic a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Belmont Swansea 42%, so Belmont Swansea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Hamilton Olympic and 2.6 for Belmont Swansea (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamilton Olympic are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.88 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.7%. This match finished 5-2.

Hamilton Olympic vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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