Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Hamilton Olympic vs Belmont Swansea

Hamilton Olympic vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 09:00

Hamilton Olympic

PPG 0.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.4%0-23.1%0-32.6%0-4+3.1%1 1-02.0%1-15.1%1-26.5%1-35.5%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.1%2-15.4%2-26.8%2-35.8%2-4+6.8%3 3-01.5%3-13.8%3-24.8%3-34.1%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-13.3%4+-24.2%4+-33.5%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 37.0% 2.70 +1.3%

Draw 21.0% 28.6% 3.50 -15.9%

Away win 41.5% 46.5% 2.15 -10.8%

Over 2.5 74.2% 71.4% 1.40 +3.9%

Over 3.5 53.2% 52.1% 1.92 +2.1%

BTTS 69.6% 73.5% 1.36 -5.3%

Home O1.5 62.2% 54.3% 1.84 +14.4%

Away O1.5 67.5% 60.2% 1.66 +12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 0%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob69.6%

A 42% / xG 2.1-2.6 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.8%

#2 1–2 6.5%

#3 1–1 5.1%

#4 2–3 5.8%

#5 1–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamilton Olympic2.1

Belmont Swansea2.6

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.2% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMILTON OLYMPIC · PPG 0.78

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.88

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Hamilton Olympic (H) 37.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +1.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.9%

Belmont Swansea (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamilton Olympic face Belmont Swansea in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamilton Olympic a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Belmont Swansea 42%, so Belmont Swansea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Hamilton Olympic and 2.6 for Belmont Swansea (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamilton Olympic are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.88 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +26.8%.

Hamilton Olympic vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Northern NSW Predictions