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Weston Bears vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 06:30

Weston Bears

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kahibah

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.1%0-21.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.2%1-16.0%1-24.2%1-32.0%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.2%2-25.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.3%3-17.6%3-25.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-110.3%4+-27.4%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 77.5% 1.29 -23.9%

Draw 20.4% 18.2% 5.50 +7.3%

Away win 20.6% 14.3% 7.00 +26.5%

Over 2.5 72.3% 83.3% 1.20 -13.2%

Over 3.5 49.6% 69.4% 1.44 -28.6%

BTTS 64.5% 73.5% 1.36 -12.3%

Home O1.5 68.0% 87.7% 1.14 -22.5%

Away O1.5 39.0% 38.3% 2.61 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.5%

H 59% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 7.6%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 2–2 5.9%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weston Bears2.8

Kahibah1.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTON BEARS · PPG 1.22

KAHIBAH · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.22) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Weston Bears (H) 59.0%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -23.9%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +7.3%

Kahibah (A) 20.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston Bears face Kahibah in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston Bears a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Kahibah 21%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Weston Bears and 1.4 for Kahibah (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston Bears are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.78 for Kahibah. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.5%.

Weston Bears vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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