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Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:00

Miami FC

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tampa Bay Rowdies

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-113.2%0-29.4%0-34.5%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.8%1-112.6%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.2%2-16.0%2-24.3%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 21.1% 4.75 +19.5%

Draw 26.7% 27.4% 3.65 -1.5%

Away win 45.4% 61.0% 1.64 -25.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 56.5% 1.77 -11.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%

BTTS 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Home O1.5 34.5% 29.4% 3.40 +17.3%

Away O1.5 41.9% 59.9% 1.67 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.3%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 9.2%

#4 0–2 9.4%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miami FC1.0

Tampa Bay Rowdies1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MIAMI FC · PPG 1.75

TAMPA BAY ROWDIES · PPG 2.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.47, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Miami FC (H) 27.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +19.5%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.5%

Tampa Bay Rowdies (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miami FC face Tampa Bay Rowdies in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miami FC a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Tampa Bay Rowdies 45%, so Tampa Bay Rowdies are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Miami FC and 1.4 for Tampa Bay Rowdies (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miami FC are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.25 for Tampa Bay Rowdies. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.8%.

Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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