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Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:00

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rhode Island

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+30.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.7%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.0%1-111.2%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.2%3-15.3%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 36.4% 2.75 +30.1%

Draw 25.1% 32.3% 3.10 -13.3%

Away win 27.6% 40.8% 2.45 -19.4%

Over 2.5 60.7% 46.5% 2.15 +30.5%

Over 3.5 36.9% 25.3% 3.95 +45.8%

BTTS 60.1% 54.6% 1.83 +10.0%

Home O1.5 53.5% 36.4% 2.75 +47.1%

Away O1.5 36.9% 39.2% 2.55 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.1%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.7

Rhode Island1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PITTSBURGH RIVERHOUNDS · PPG 2.14

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +30.1%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.3%

Rhode Island (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pittsburgh Riverhounds face Rhode Island in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pittsburgh Riverhounds a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Rhode Island 28%, so Pittsburgh Riverhounds are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds and 1.2 for Rhode Island (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pittsburgh Riverhounds are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.00 for Rhode Island. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +69.5%.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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