Today / USA - USL Championship / Indy Eleven vs Loudoun United

Indy Eleven vs Loudoun United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:00

Indy Eleven

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Loudoun United

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.5%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.3%1-18.1%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-17.4%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-17.4%4+-22.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% 59.5% 1.68 +8.2%

Draw 20.4% 26.3% 3.80 -13.5%

Away win 15.2% 23.8% 4.20 -21.7%

Over 2.5 63.0% 60.6% 1.65 +4.0%

Over 3.5 40.0% 38.5% 2.60 +4.0%

BTTS 52.3% 62.5% 1.60 -16.3%

Home O1.5 61.8% 61.7% 1.62 +0.1%

Away O1.5 20.1% 34.5% 2.90 -25.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 64% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 9.3%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Indy Eleven2.3

Loudoun United0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 2.71

LOUDOUN UNITED · PPG 0.83

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.53 for Home, form 2.71 vs 0.83 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Indy Eleven (H) 64.4%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +8.2%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -13.5%

Loudoun United (A) 15.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Indy Eleven face Loudoun United in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Indy Eleven a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Loudoun United 15%, so Indy Eleven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Indy Eleven and 0.8 for Loudoun United (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Indy Eleven are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 0.83 for Loudoun United. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.0%.

Indy Eleven vs Loudoun United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions