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Sarmiento Res. vs Godoy Cruz Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura - 2 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Sarmiento Res.

PPG 0.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Godoy Cruz Res.

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.1%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.5%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.9%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 45.5% 2.20 +0.8%

Draw 26.5% 35.7% 2.80 -15.5%

Away win 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -8.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 44.4% 2.25 +12.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Home O1.5 43.6% 41.7% 2.40 +4.6%

Away O1.5 31.4% 34.5% 2.90 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento Res.1.4

Godoy Cruz Res.1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO RES. · PPG 0.56

GODOY CRUZ RES. · PPG 0.44

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento Res. (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +0.8%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.5%

Godoy Cruz Res. (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento Res. face Godoy Cruz Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento Res. a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Godoy Cruz Res. 28%, so Sarmiento Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sarmiento Res. and 1.0 for Godoy Cruz Res. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento Res. are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 0.44 for Godoy Cruz Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.5%.

Sarmiento Res. vs Godoy Cruz Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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