Today / Argentina - Reserve League / Argentinos Juniors Res. vs Atlético Tucumán Res.

Argentinos Juniors Res. vs Atlético Tucumán Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura - 2 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Argentinos Juniors Res.

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atlético Tucumán Res.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.3%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.0%1-111.1%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.8%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 54.1% 1.85 +2.3%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 20.4% 26.7% 3.75 -14.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 52.4% 1.91 +2.9%

Over 3.5 32.8% 31.8% 3.14 +3.0%

BTTS 52.3% 57.1% 1.75 -8.5%

Home O1.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Away O1.5 26.1% 31.1% 3.22 -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentinos Juniors Res.1.8

Atlético Tucumán Res.0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINOS JUNIORS RES. · PPG 1.89

ATLÉTICO TUCUMÁN RES. · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Argentinos Juniors Res. (H) 55.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +2.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Atlético Tucumán Res. (A) 20.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentinos Juniors Res. face Atlético Tucumán Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentinos Juniors Res. a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Atlético Tucumán Res. 20%, so Argentinos Juniors Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Argentinos Juniors Res. and 0.9 for Atlético Tucumán Res. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentinos Juniors Res. are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.50 for Atlético Tucumán Res.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.3%.

Argentinos Juniors Res. vs Atlético Tucumán Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Reserve League Predictions