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Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Quilmes 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura - 2 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 18:00

Estudiantes La Plata Res

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Quilmes 2

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.0%0-112.6%0-23.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-112.3%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.6%2-16.0%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.2%3-12.0%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% — — —

Draw 31.1% — — —

Away win 23.5% — — —

Over 2.5 39.6% — — —

Over 3.5 19.8% — — —

BTTS 46.5% — — —

Home O1.5 35.4% — — —

Away O1.5 18.6% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.5%

H 45% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.0%

#2 1–0 19.7%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes La Plata Res1.0

Quilmes 20.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES LA PLATA RES · PPG 1.90

QUILMES 2 · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.90) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes La Plata Res (H) 45.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Quilmes 2 (A) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes La Plata Res face Quilmes 2 in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes La Plata Res a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Quilmes 2 24%, so Estudiantes La Plata Res are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Estudiantes La Plata Res and 0.6 for Quilmes 2 (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes La Plata Res are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.44 for Quilmes 2.

Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Quilmes 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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