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Lanús Res. vs Huracán Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 18:00

Lanús Res.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Huracán Res.

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 52% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+30.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.2%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.3%1-110.1%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.1%3-16.3%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.7%4+-22.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 54.1% 1.85 -8.1%

Draw 22.8% 33.3% 3.00 -19.0%

Away win 27.5% 25.6% 3.90 +4.3%

Over 2.5 62.1% 47.6% 2.10 +30.4%

Over 3.5 39.9% 29.9% 3.34 +33.3%

BTTS 61.9% 55.6% 1.80 +11.4%

Home O1.5 55.7% 50.3% 1.99 +10.8%

Away O1.5 36.9% 28.6% 3.50 +29.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.9%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0✓ 8.3%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lanús Res.1.9

Huracán Res.1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LANÚS RES. · PPG 2.00

HURACÁN RES. · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lanús Res. (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -8.1%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.0%

Huracán Res. (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lanús Res. face Huracán Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lanús Res. a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Huracán Res. 28%, so Lanús Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lanús Res. and 1.2 for Huracán Res. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lanús Res. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.22 for Huracán Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Lanús Res. vs Huracán Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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