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Independiente Riva. Res. vs Independiente Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 18:00

Independiente Riva. Res.

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Independiente Res.

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.8%0-26.8%0-33.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.5%1-111.6%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.0%2-17.7%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 34.5% 2.90 +6.1%

Draw 24.6% 34.5% 2.90 -17.2%

Away win 38.8% 44.4% 2.25 -12.7%

Over 2.5 55.3% 50.0% 2.00 +10.6%

Over 3.5 34.6% 31.3% 3.20 +10.7%

BTTS 57.6% 58.8% 1.70 -2.1%

Home O1.5 38.5% 37.9% 2.64 +1.6%

Away O1.5 49.0% 45.0% 2.22 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.6%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2✓ 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Riva. Res.1.3

Independiente Res.1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE RIVA. RES. · PPG 1.44

INDEPENDIENTE RES. · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Riva. Res. (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +6.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.2%

Independiente Res. (A) 38.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Riva. Res. face Independiente Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Riva. Res. a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Independiente Res. 39%, so Independiente Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Independiente Riva. Res. and 1.5 for Independiente Res. (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Riva. Res. are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.56 for Independiente Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Independiente Riva. Res. vs Independiente Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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