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Racing Club Res. vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 18:00

Racing Club Res.

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLD

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

Home 56% chance

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-17.6%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-111.6%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-18.8%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.3%3-14.5%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 57.8% 1.73 -10.6%

Draw 25.1% 32.3% 3.10 -13.3%

Away win 23.2% 22.7% 4.40 +1.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% 52.6% 1.90 -5.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.5% 3.28 -3.5%

BTTS 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Home O1.5 46.3% 54.1% 1.85 -14.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 26.0% 3.85 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 12.4%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Club Res.1.5

Gimnasia Mendoza 20.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING CLUB RES. · PPG 1.78

GIMNASIA MENDOZA 2 · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Racing Club Res. (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -10.6%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.3%

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 (A) 23.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Club Res. face Gimnasia Mendoza 2 in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Club Res. a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Gimnasia Mendoza 2 23%, so Racing Club Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Racing Club Res. and 0.7 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Club Res. are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2. This match finished 2-3.

Racing Club Res. vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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