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San Martín San Juan Res. vs Atl. Rafaela 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura - 2 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 18:00

San Martín San Juan Res.

PPG 0.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atl. Rafaela 2

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.1%0-25.2%0-33.5%0-4+2.9%1 1-04.1%1-18.4%1-28.6%1-35.8%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.4%2-16.9%2-27.1%2-34.8%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.9%3-13.8%3-23.9%3-32.7%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.3%4+-22.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 45.2% — — —

Over 2.5 65.1% — — —

Over 3.5 42.1% — — —

BTTS 63.9% — — —

Home O1.5 53.9% — — —

Away O1.5 49.6% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.9%

A 45% / xG 1.7-2.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martín San Juan Res.1.7

Atl. Rafaela 22.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTÍN SAN JUAN RES. · PPG 0.78

ATL. RAFAELA 2 · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.78) > Away POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

San Martín San Juan Res. (H) 32.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atl. Rafaela 2 (A) 45.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martín San Juan Res. face Atl. Rafaela 2 in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martín San Juan Res. a 33% chance, the draw 22% and Atl. Rafaela 2 45%, so Atl. Rafaela 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for San Martín San Juan Res. and 2.0 for Atl. Rafaela 2 (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martín San Juan Res. are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 0.44 for Atl. Rafaela 2.

San Martín San Juan Res. vs Atl. Rafaela 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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