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Instituto Res. vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura - 2 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 18:00

Instituto Res.

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia La Plata Res.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-114.8%0-26.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.1%1-113.2%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.2%2-15.9%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.1%3-11.8%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% — — —

Draw 32.1% — — —

Away win 30.4% — — —

Over 2.5 36.5% — — —

Over 3.5 17.8% — — —

BTTS 46.7% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.7%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.0%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.1%

#4 0–1 14.8%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Instituto Res.0.9

Gimnasia La Plata Res.0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INSTITUTO RES. · PPG 1.44

GIMNASIA LA PLATA RES. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 1.72 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Instituto Res. (H) 37.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gimnasia La Plata Res. (A) 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Instituto Res. face Gimnasia La Plata Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Instituto Res. a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Gimnasia La Plata Res. 30%, so Instituto Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Instituto Res. and 0.8 for Gimnasia La Plata Res. (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Instituto Res. are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.50 for Gimnasia La Plata Res..

Instituto Res. vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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