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HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:00

HFX Wanderers FC

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Supra du Quebec

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.7%0-23.0%0-31.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.9%1-18.0%1-26.5%1-33.5%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.8%3-16.2%3-25.0%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.4%4+-24.4%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 48.5% 2.06 +3.0%

Draw 22.4% 27.8% 3.60 -11.6%

Away win 27.6% 32.8% 3.05 -9.5%

Over 2.5 67.0% 64.5% 1.55 +3.9%

Over 3.5 44.5% 42.0% 2.38 +5.9%

BTTS 64.5% 69.0% 1.45 -6.5%

Home O1.5 61.8% 56.5% 1.77 +9.4%

Away O1.5 49.0% 44.4% 2.25 +10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.5%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HFX Wanderers FC2.1

Supra du Quebec1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HFX WANDERERS FC · PPG 1.33

SUPRA DU QUEBEC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

HFX Wanderers FC (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV +3.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.6%

Supra du Quebec (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

HFX Wanderers FC face Supra du Quebec in Canada - Premier League on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Supra du Quebec 28%, so HFX Wanderers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.6 for Supra du Quebec (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Supra du Quebec. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 2-3.

HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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