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HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:00

HFX Wanderers FC

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Supra du Quebec

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+12.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.5%0-23.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.9%1-19.0%1-26.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.9%3-16.0%3-24.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.7%4+-23.6%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 51.3% 1.95 -2.5%

Draw 22.4% 29.4% 3.40 -14.3%

Away win 27.6% 27.8% 3.60 -0.4%

Over 2.5 66.0% 58.8% 1.70 +12.2%

Over 3.5 43.7% 38.2% 2.62 +14.5%

BTTS 64.5% 59.9% 1.67 +7.7%

Home O1.5 55.7% 57.8% 1.73 -3.6%

Away O1.5 49.0% 33.3% 3.00 +47.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.5%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HFX Wanderers FC2.0

Supra du Quebec1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HFX WANDERERS FC · PPG 1.33

SUPRA DU QUEBEC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HFX Wanderers FC (H) 50.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -2.5%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.3%

Supra du Quebec (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

HFX Wanderers FC face Supra du Quebec in Canada - Premier League on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Supra du Quebec 28%, so HFX Wanderers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.5 for Supra du Quebec (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Supra du Quebec. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +47.0%.

HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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