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HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 19:00

HFX Wanderers FC

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

UPCOMING

Cavalry FC

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

Away 58% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-112.9%0-211.2%0-36.4%0-4+4.1%1 1-06.4%1-111.2%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-02.8%2-14.8%2-24.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.8%3-11.4%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.2% 25.0% 4.00 -6.7%

Draw 22.5% 27.0% 3.70 -10.1%

Away win 55.3% 58.8% 1.70 -6.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 32.4% 33.3% 3.00 -2.8%

BTTS 54.0% 57.8% 1.73 -6.6%

Home O1.5 30.8% 29.4% 3.40 +4.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 59.9% 1.67 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.0%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.9%

#2 0–2 11.2%

#3 1–1 11.2%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HFX Wanderers FC0.9

Cavalry FC1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HFX WANDERERS FC · PPG 1.33

CAVALRY FC · PPG 1.89

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

DANGER

xG gap -0.86 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

HFX Wanderers FC (H) 22.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.7%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.1%

Cavalry FC (A) 55.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

HFX Wanderers FC face Cavalry FC in Canada - Premier League on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 22% chance, the draw 23% and Cavalry FC 55%, so Cavalry FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.7 for Cavalry FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.89 for Cavalry FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.7%.

HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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