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Ituzaingó vs Sportivo Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 27 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:00

Ituzaingó

PPG 0.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Italiano

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -0.63 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.4%0-120.0%0-212.2%0-34.9%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.7%1-111.8%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-02.9%2-13.5%2-22.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.6%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.4% — — —

Draw 29.5% — — —

Away win 50.1% — — —

Over 2.5 39.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.7% — — —

BTTS 46.4% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob46.4%

A 50% / xG 0.6-1.2 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.0%

#2 0–0 16.4%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 0–2 12.2%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituzaingó0.6

Sportivo Italiano1.2

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUZAINGÓ · PPG 0.62

SPORTIVO ITALIANO · PPG 1.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.63 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ituzaingó (H) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sportivo Italiano (A) 50.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituzaingó face Sportivo Italiano in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituzaingó a 20% chance, the draw 30% and Sportivo Italiano 50%, so Sportivo Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Ituzaingó and 1.2 for Sportivo Italiano (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituzaingó are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.85 for Sportivo Italiano.

Ituzaingó vs Sportivo Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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