Today / Brazil - Paulista - U20 / Ponte Preta U20 vs União Suzano U20

Ponte Preta U20 vs União Suzano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Ponte Preta U20 logo
Ponte Preta U20
PPG 1.33 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
União Suzano U20 logo
União Suzano U20
PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.0%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.5%1-18.8%1-24.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.3%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-16.8%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 58.6%
Draw 21.7%
Away win 19.7%
Over 2.5 63.7%
Over 3.5 40.0%
BTTS 55.4%
Home O1.5 61.8%
Away O1.5 26.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 59% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%
#2 1–1 8.8%
#3 2–1 9.8%
#4 1–0 9.5%
#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta U202.2
União Suzano U200.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA U20 · PPG 1.33

UNIÃO SUZANO U20 · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta U20 (H) 58.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 21.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
União Suzano U20 (A) 19.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta U20 face União Suzano U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta U20 a 59% chance, the draw 22% and União Suzano U20 20%, so Ponte Preta U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Ponte Preta U20 and 0.9 for União Suzano U20 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta U20 are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for União Suzano U20.

PredictVantage

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