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Sfera U20 vs Osasco Audax U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 8 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Sfera U20

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Osasco Audax U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

Home 59% chance

Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+32.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-12.7%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.8%1-16.7%1-22.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-18.5%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.6%3-17.2%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.4%4+-18.3%4+-22.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% 54.1% 1.85 +32.5%

Draw 18.3% 27.8% 3.60 -20.5%

Away win 10.0% 30.3% 3.30 -40.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 54.1% 1.85 +17.8%

Over 3.5 40.0% 34.2% 2.92 +16.8%

BTTS 48.5% 59.9% 1.67 -19.0%

Home O1.5 63.3% 53.5% 1.87 +18.4%

Away O1.5 19.1% 33.6% 2.98 -25.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -41.3%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 72% / xG 2.5-0.6 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 3–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sfera U202.5

Osasco Audax U200.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SFERA U20 · PPG 2.00

OSASCO AUDAX U20 · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

59%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.91 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sfera U20 (H) 71.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +32.5%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -20.5%

Osasco Audax U20 (A) 10.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -40.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sfera U20 face Osasco Audax U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sfera U20 a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Osasco Audax U20 10%, so Sfera U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Sfera U20 and 0.6 for Osasco Audax U20 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sfera U20 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Osasco Audax U20. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Sfera U20 vs Osasco Audax U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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