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Água Santa U20 vs Ituano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

Água Santa U20

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ituano U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.0%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-17.5%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.9%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-17.8%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-18.8%4+-23.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% — — —

Draw 19.8% — — —

Away win 17.6% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 63% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–0 9.1%

#4 1–1 7.5%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Água Santa U202.5

Ituano U200.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ÁGUA SANTA U20 · PPG 2.00

ITUANO U20 · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.64 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Água Santa U20 (H) 62.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ituano U20 (A) 17.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Água Santa U20 face Ituano U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Água Santa U20 a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Ituano U20 18%, so Água Santa U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Água Santa U20 and 0.9 for Ituano U20 (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Água Santa U20 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Ituano U20.

Água Santa U20 vs Ituano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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