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TPV vs PKKU Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

TPV

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

PKKU

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.9%0-26.2%0-33.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.1%1-111.2%1-28.8%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.0%2-26.3%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.4%3-13.8%3-23.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 43.5% 2.30 -15.8%

Draw 24.8% 29.4% 3.40 -9.4%

Away win 38.6% 40.0% 2.50 -3.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 73.5% 1.36 -18.8%

Over 3.5 36.7% 54.6% 1.83 -32.8%

BTTS 59.9% 73.5% 1.36 -18.5%

Home O1.5 40.1% 57.8% 1.73 -30.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.8% 1.73 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.9%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 7.9%

#5 0–2✓ 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TPV1.4

PKKU1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TPV · PPG 1.60

PKKU · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

TPV (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -15.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.4%

PKKU (A) 38.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

TPV face PKKU in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TPV a 37% chance, the draw 25% and PKKU 39%, so PKKU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for TPV and 1.6 for PKKU (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TPV are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.50 for PKKU. This match finished 0-2.

TPV vs PKKU Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkonen Predictions