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VJS vs FC jazz Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

VJS

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC jazz

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.6%0-23.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.6%1-110.3%1-26.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.2%3-15.7%3-23.9%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 64.5% 1.55 -26.5%

Draw 23.3% 25.0% 4.00 -4.1%

Away win 29.3% 21.1% 4.75 +23.5%

Over 2.5 62.6% 75.2% 1.33 -16.7%

Over 3.5 39.4% 54.6% 1.83 -27.9%

BTTS 61.3% 71.4% 1.40 -14.2%

Home O1.5 53.0% 73.5% 1.36 -27.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 38.2% 2.62 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VJS1.8

FC jazz1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VJS · PPG 1.60

FC JAZZ · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

VJS (H) 47.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -26.5%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.1%

FC jazz (A) 29.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

VJS face FC jazz in Finland - Ykkonen on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VJS a 47% chance, the draw 23% and FC jazz 29%, so VJS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for VJS and 1.4 for FC jazz (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VJS are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.00 for FC jazz. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 1-1.

VJS vs FC jazz Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkonen Predictions