Today / Finland - Ykkonen / KuPS Akatemia vs SalPa

KuPS Akatemia vs SalPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

KuPS Akatemia

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SalPa

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.0%0-24.5%0-32.7%0-4+1.8%1 1-05.0%1-19.0%1-28.0%1-34.8%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.1%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.7%3-14.8%3-24.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.2%4+-22.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 29.4% 3.40 +36.7%

Draw 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Away win 37.2% 55.6% 1.80 -33.0%

Over 2.5 66.5% 76.9% 1.30 -13.6%

Over 3.5 45.0% 57.8% 1.73 -22.1%

BTTS 63.1% 75.2% 1.33 -16.1%

Home O1.5 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 71.4% 1.40 -32.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.1%

H 40% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KuPS Akatemia1.8

SalPa1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KUPS AKATEMIA · PPG 0.80

SALPA · PPG 1.30

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

KuPS Akatemia (H) 40.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +36.7%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

SalPa (A) 37.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

KuPS Akatemia face SalPa in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KuPS Akatemia a 40% chance, the draw 23% and SalPa 37%, so KuPS Akatemia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for KuPS Akatemia and 1.8 for SalPa (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KuPS Akatemia are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.30 for SalPa. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 1-3.

KuPS Akatemia vs SalPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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