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Tampere United vs Rops Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Tampere United

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rops

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.2%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.2%1-110.2%1-25.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.8%3-16.4%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 47.6% 2.10 +12.1%

Draw 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Away win 23.9% 35.7% 2.80 -19.9%

Over 2.5 60.7% 70.4% 1.42 -13.8%

Over 3.5 36.9% 48.8% 2.05 -24.4%

BTTS 60.5% 73.5% 1.36 -17.7%

Home O1.5 54.9% 59.9% 1.67 -8.3%

Away O1.5 35.6% 51.8% 1.93 -31.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.5%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampere United1.9

Rops1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPERE UNITED · PPG 1.80

ROPS · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tampere United (H) 53.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +12.1%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

Rops (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampere United face Rops in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampere United a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Rops 24%, so Tampere United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Tampere United and 1.1 for Rops (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampere United are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.60 for Rops. This match finished 4-0.

Tampere United vs Rops Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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