Today / Finland - Ykkonen / SalPa vs OLS

SalPa vs OLS Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

SalPa

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

OLS

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.9%0-24.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.6%1-19.2%1-27.5%1-34.1%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.2%3-15.3%3-24.4%3-32.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.8%4+-23.1%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 46.5% 2.15 -6.3%

Draw 21.9% 27.4% 3.65 -12.0%

Away win 34.5% 35.7% 2.80 -3.4%

Over 2.5 65.0% 72.5% 1.38 -10.3%

Over 3.5 43.5% 51.3% 1.95 -15.2%

BTTS 63.2% 75.2% 1.33 -15.9%

Home O1.5 54.9% 61.7% 1.62 -11.1%

Away O1.5 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SalPa1.9

OLS1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SALPA · PPG 1.70

OLS · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SalPa (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -6.3%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.0%

OLS (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

SalPa face OLS in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SalPa a 44% chance, the draw 22% and OLS 35%, so SalPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for SalPa and 1.6 for OLS (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SalPa are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.10 for OLS. This match finished 4-1.

SalPa vs OLS Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkonen Predictions