Today / Finland - Ykkonen / Inter Turku II vs TPV

Inter Turku II vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Inter Turku II

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

TPV

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.9%0-23.4%0-31.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.7%1-18.1%1-26.9%1-34.0%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.2%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.3%3-15.7%3-24.9%3-32.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.8%4+-24.1%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 42.9% 2.33 +7.9%

Draw 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -10.5%

Away win 31.7% 40.0% 2.50 -20.8%

Over 2.5 67.2% 76.9% 1.30 -12.6%

Over 3.5 43.5% 57.8% 1.73 -24.8%

BTTS 63.2% 80.0% 1.25 -21.0%

Home O1.5 59.6% 63.7% 1.57 -6.4%

Away O1.5 48.5% 61.7% 1.62 -21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.2%

H 46% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Turku II2.1

TPV1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER TURKU II · PPG 0.90

TPV · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Inter Turku II (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +7.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.5%

TPV (A) 31.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Turku II face TPV in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Turku II a 46% chance, the draw 22% and TPV 32%, so Inter Turku II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Inter Turku II and 1.7 for TPV (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Turku II are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 0.50 for TPV. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Inter Turku II vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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