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OLS vs Tampere United Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

OLS

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tampere United

PPG 2.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-19.2%0-27.9%0-34.5%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.5%1-111.1%1-29.5%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.9%2-16.7%2-25.8%2-33.3%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.6%3-12.7%3-22.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 38.2% 2.62 -15.0%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 47.1% 44.4% 2.25 +6.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Over 3.5 36.7% 50.0% 2.00 -26.6%

BTTS 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Home O1.5 32.6% 52.4% 1.91 -37.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.8% 1.73 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.7%

A 47% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 2–1✓ 6.7%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OLS1.2

Tampere United1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OLS · PPG 2.00

TAMPERE UNITED · PPG 2.30

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.50 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

OLS (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -15.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Tampere United (A) 47.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

OLS face Tampere United in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OLS a 29% chance, the draw 24% and Tampere United 47%, so Tampere United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for OLS and 1.7 for Tampere United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OLS are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.30 for Tampere United. This match finished 2-1.

OLS vs Tampere United Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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