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Rops vs VJS Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

Rops

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

VJS

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.8%0-23.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.9%1-19.5%1-26.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.5%3-16.2%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.8%4+-23.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 44.4% 2.25 +6.7%

Draw 22.7% 29.4% 3.40 -13.7%

Away win 29.9% 38.2% 2.62 -13.0%

Over 2.5 64.6% 71.4% 1.40 -9.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 50.0% 2.00 -13.6%

BTTS 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Home O1.5 56.3% 59.9% 1.67 -6.0%

Away O1.5 40.9% 54.6% 1.83 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–0✓ 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rops2.0

VJS1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ROPS · PPG 2.10

VJS · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rops (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +6.7%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.7%

VJS (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rops face VJS in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rops a 47% chance, the draw 23% and VJS 30%, so Rops are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Rops and 1.4 for VJS (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rops are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.40 for VJS. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Rops vs VJS Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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