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JJK vs KPV-j Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

JJK

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

KPV-j

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.6%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.2%1-12.6%1-21.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-04.4%2-15.2%2-23.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.0%3-17.0%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-017.8%4+-120.9%4+-212.3%4+-34.8%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.7% 80.0% 1.25 -12.9%

Draw 15.1% 20.0% 5.00 -14.7%

Away win 15.1% 12.5% 8.00 +12.5%

Over 2.5 81.8% 80.0% 1.25 +2.3%

Over 3.5 58.4% 63.7% 1.57 -8.3%

BTTS 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Home O1.5 78.3% 84.7% 1.18 -7.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 30.8% 3.25 +7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)4.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.1%

H 70% / xG 4.0-1.2 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1✓ 7.1%

#2 3–1 7.0%

#3 2–2 3.1%

#4 4–0 6.0%

#5 1–1 2.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JJK4.0

KPV-j1.2

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.8% · O3.5 PROB 58.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JJK · PPG 1.40

KPV-J · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.87 for Home, form 1.40 vs 0.80 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

JJK (H) 69.7%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -12.9%

Draw 15.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -14.7%

KPV-j (A) 15.1%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

JJK face KPV-j in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JJK a 70% chance, the draw 15% and KPV-j 15%, so JJK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.0 for JJK and 1.2 for KPV-j (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JJK are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for KPV-j. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 4-1.

JJK vs KPV-j Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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