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Aral vs Shortan Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 11 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 13:30

Aral

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Shortan

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Home 61% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-18.3%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-112.2%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.0%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.3%3-14.4%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 65.4% 1.53 -20.3%

Draw 24.8% 25.0% 4.00 -0.5%

Away win 23.1% 21.1% 4.75 +5.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 58.8% 1.70 -15.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 37.6% 2.66 -14.2%

BTTS 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Home O1.5 46.3% 63.3% 1.58 -26.9%

Away O1.5 20.1% 27.9% 3.58 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aral1.5

Shortan0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAL · PPG 3.00

SHORTAN · PPG 3.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aral (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -20.3%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.5%

Shortan (A) 23.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aral face Shortan in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aral a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Shortan 23%, so Aral are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aral and 0.8 for Shortan (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aral are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Shortan. This match finished 3-1.

Aral vs Shortan Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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