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Aral vs Shortan Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 13:30

Aral

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shortan

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-18.7%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.0%1-112.4%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-18.8%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-14.2%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 23.1% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 49.8% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.8%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 15.0%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aral1.4

Shortan0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAL · PPG 3.00

SHORTAN · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aral (H) 51.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shortan (A) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aral face Shortan in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aral a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Shortan 23%, so Aral are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Aral and 0.8 for Shortan (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aral are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Shortan.

Aral vs Shortan Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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